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December 22, 2006

Megaprojects: Will They Continue and Will They Be Successful?

NASA

During the 1970s and 1980s many international agencies became increasingly concerned about the size of major development projects that they were supporting. The concerns included the facts that Mega projects absorb enormous amounts of capitals over long periods reducing flexibility in development planning; are extremely complex to manage and seemed in some cases to be beyond anyone’s control; and, the sheer size of the projects suggest that the environmental impact may be substantial but probably not readily calculable in advance.

While these concerns still remain, there is no evidence that the size of the megaprojects has been constrained. Rather, the reverse has been the case. The largest projects seem to be getting bigger and bigger. Some recent examples of mega projects almost unimaginable a few decades ago include the Three Gorges Dam; the world’s largest man-made islands offshore in Dubai at a cost of $3.5 billion; Intercontinental Gas Pipelines such as the $6-billion, 2600-kilometer pipeline from Iran to India currently in the planning stage; the Channel Tunnel, the world’s largest private sector infrastructure project to date at a final cost of about $15 billion; and the Boston Central Artery Tunnel project with its continuing saga of megaproblems.

Despite the problems that arise, there are a number of possible explanations why mega projects continue. Development planners and political leaders are often attracted to projects that offer a single solution to massive problems, despite the price. Decision-makers can often focus better on a single project which may fix the infrastructure problem once and for all than on complex, interdependent combinations of initiatives or programs. Megaprojects are often calculated to give tangible expression to national aspirations for economic and social development and to demonstrate the government’s capacity to deliver development results for the population. Another explanation is that technological innovation makes structures possible which were previously impossible.

Mega projects are complex with complex problems. However, not every complex problem requires a complex solution. In many cases, complex problems are solved by just analyzing the “basics” of the problem, which in turn leads to a simple solution. Underlying most issues of success boil down to project management. Most of the success is embedded in the skill sets possessed by the company’s employees. My company is often asked to evaluate the “team” and to provide advice as to why the “team” is not working as effectively and efficiently as planned and in return, producing the ROI anticipated. Time after time, we find that the root cause is not the “technology,” but rather the people -- including cultural differences between multinational team members. The number of individuals worl wide who have managed a megaproject can almost be counted on one hand, due to the number of years it takes to complete one and how many of these one individual can actually oversee in a lifetime.

The question then becomes whether megaprojects can be successfully managed through the people who are brought in to design, construct and oversee them. The selection of both the project director and the consortium team become paramount to the project’s success since any increase to the time and/or resources to a mega project can result in disaster in a very short time. My opinion is that megaprojects will continue. The real question is whether they can continue to be successful and that will depend on the basic common denominator in anything we do -- people.

Frequently, the planning and execution of international mega projects requires the formation of joint ventures and other types of associations. Because of the nature of international mega projects, owners, financial agencies, contractors, sub-contractors, vendors, and suppliers, often come from different cultural backgrounds. Differences in approaches, values and experiences have lead to many mega project failures. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the impact of cross-cultural differences among the team players in order for a mega project to be successful.

 

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January 1, 2007

In my opinion North America has way more exciting megaprojects than anywhere else in the world.

I've worked on The New Bay Bridge estimate, the Sea To Sky project estimate, and the construction of Salt Lake City's I-15 Reconstruction Project.

In North America megaprojects will continue because owners want them and they desperately need infrastructure now!

With all due respect, Dubai may be of interest to some but I'm far more interested in how we're progressing here in North America. Will you please let ENR know that.

Todd Wilson


 

From the Top

Pat D. Galloway, P.E., Ph.D., CPEng
Dr. Patricia D. Galloway, PE, is CEO of the Seattle-based Nielsen-Wurster Group. In June 2006 she was appointed by President Bush to serve a six-year term as a director of the 24-member National Science Board, the National Science Foundation's governing body.

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