Much has been said about “Joe the plumber” recently in the presidential campaign, and the situation raises questions about what kind of business prospects he and others in the trades or small business may have under the administration of either candidate. In reality, there are tens of thousands of licensed plumbers in the U.S., and they already are feeling the effects of the construction downturn. That is likely to become worse as the economy continues to sour and the housing crisis persists. It will be bad for everyone, no matter who wins the election.

This is yet another example of the boom-bust cycles that tend to make construction an unattractive place to build a career despite yeoman efforts by well-intentioned people  to convince job seekers that things are great. Where now are all the carpenters, masons, electricians, roofers, painters and operating engineers who over the past decade helped to build massive quantities of housing units, as well as the shopping centers, roads, bridges and schools needed to support those homes? They have been laid off—dumped by the wayside after the subprime-mortgage bubble burst by many of the same firms that complained about labor shortages and their inability to attract skilled help.

The U.S. Dept. of Labor reports construction unemployment was 9.9% in September, a sharp increase from the 5.8% a year earlier and more than double the rate in the same period in 2000. This means 970,000 construction industry workers were on the bench in September. This is the new construction workforce crisis. Any company that now complains it can’t find crafts, managers or professionals is likely inept.

That difficulty in dealing with crisis is the target of an industry initiative aimed at finding a new generation of leaders and making sure they are trained in leadership, both in classrooms and companies. Technical competency is important, but leadership is the ill-defined but important mixture of personality, knowledge and foresight that can make an enterprise work. Part of the work facing leaders is to reduce the wild swings in construction employment.

As the new workforce crisis unfolds, it will be important for the industry to make sure that people with construction skills—craft, professional, managerial and leadership—do not drift away. There will be another boom after the bust as pent-up demand for infrastructure, industrial and residential facilities is addressed. It could come in a year, three years or even five, but don’t expect Joe or anyone else to just hang around for the next boom.