Listen to Those Who Have Been There Before
10/08/2008
It now is clear that the industry, as well as the overall economy, is headed for a recession. After 15 years of enjoying a generally good and sometimes spectacular market, construction firms are worried about the future. There is cause for concern, as credit markets freeze up globally and projects languish. But now is not the time to panic.
One of the biggest difficulties the industry now faces is that many managers have never managed through a real recession, just a couple of baby downturns. There was one in 2001-2003, when the commercial market fell off, and then credit dried up in the wake of 9/11 and the Enron disaster. Many recall that as a tough time.
But the last real prolonged industry recession was in the late 1980s and early 1990s when hundreds of savings and loan insti-tutions failed amid an overbuilt market. Everyone thought the financial sector would not recover. But it did. And in the late 1970s and early 1980s, there was rampant inflation and a prime interest rate that topped 20%. No one could afford to finance projects. Going back even further, there was an industry recession in the early 1970s that culminated with the Arab oil embargo, when gas prices doubled and there were long lines at the pumps. In each case, the public thought the sky was falling, but the economy and the industry bounced back stronger than ever.
For many who have come to the industry in the past 15 years, war stories of the bad old days from the “old geezers” have no doubt been a source of amusement and eye-rolling for years. After all, the younger managers have enjoyed almost constant good times.
But there is one thing that these old timers can say: They survived some of the toughest times the industry can face and emerged better than before. There are lessons to be learned from those times and the people who successfully managed their companies through them.
The American Subcontractors Association is taking action to spread that knowledge. Alexandria, Va.-based ASA is assembling volunteer groups of veteran executives to serve as a mentoring resource to younger ASA members who need advice. This is a great idea, and other groups should take note.
Of all the lessons, the most important are to bid rationally, take care of your people, reinforce your relationships with your customers and count your cash. After the credit thaw, business will get back to normal.