A drumfire of
recent project announcements has anticipated the energy-policy
task forces call for more reliance on coal for powerplant
fuel. Shaking off two decades of bad press, the long-time
standard of U.S. power-generation fuels has cleaned up its
act and is getting good reviews for being price competitive
and widely available.
In 1999, even after years
of environmental backlash and market-share loss to natural
gas, coal-fired powerplants still generated 51% of all U.S.
electricity, says the Dept. of Energys Energy Information
Administration. Just five coal-fired electric generating plants
totaling 1,170 Mw are now under construction in the U.S. and
Canada, according to Washington, D.C.-based Platts udi, like
enr, a unit of The McGraw-Hill Cos. But plans for 40 other
plants, totaling 15,300 Mw, have been announced (see table).
INTEREST. Burns & McDonnell,
Kansas City, used to receive perhaps one inquiry in six months
about building a coal-fired plant, says Douglas Riedel,
business development director. In the last nine to 12 months,
that has grown to one every week or two, he says.
"Most of our work on coal
is the up-front work," including feasibility studies
and conceptual design, says Greg Graves, Burns & McDonnell
energy group general manager. He normally allows three to
six months for studies, then 12 to 24 months for siting, environmental
studies and permitting. "Some people are ahead of the
game," he says, adding that some utilities "with
exceptional vision" started studies some time ago. "Ive
got studies in-house now that could break ground next summer,"
Graves adds.
For coal-fired plants, "the
air permit and the boiler are the critical path," Graves
says. He foresees a potential for boiler orders to become
backlogged as gas-turbine orders now are. "I think youre
going to find price escalation before the years over"
up to 50%, as has happened with gas turbines, he says.
DRIVERS. Two facts are driving
the return to coal, says Seth Schwartz, coal practice director
at Energy Ventures Analysis Inc., Arlington, Va.: "Weve
consumed our excess electric-generating capacity and we had
a big increase in natural-gas prices in summer 2000."
In the last six months, utilities have begun announcing construction
of new coal-fired powerplants, he adds.
Coal prices reflect the
increased demand. Following a 15-year slump, prices for most
coals have more than doubled in the last year, says Schwartz.
The industrys extended contraction has sharply reduced
supply, and he expects prices to decline only slowly over
the next two to three years. But given todays natural-gas
prices, even high-priced coal can compete. The fuel-price
difference is the key. "When the fuel-price differential
for fuel delivered to the plant exceeds $2.50 per million
Btu, it becomes economic" to use coal instead, he says.