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business & labor
FORECAST 2005
FMI Picks Office Buildings for Growth

The construction forecast from industry management consultant FMI Corp., Denver, predicts that the office building market will be one of the industry’s fastest growing sectors in 2005. FMI expects office building construction to jump 9.5% next year after increasing 7.1% in 2004. "Even acknowledging that vacancy rates will remain relatively high, we still see good opportunities in 2005 and 2006 for the nonresidential building market," says Randy Jiggard, FMI’s manager of market information. He sees total nonresidential building construction increasing 5.8% next year, a faster annual growth rate than that predicted for the single-family housing market. Along with office building work, FMI sees a strong rebound in the commercial building market, which reversed three years of declines by increasing 2.9% in 2004. FMI predicts the commercial building market will grow another 7.2% in 2005.

here
FMI: Construction Put-in-Place
$ millions (current dollars)
  PERCENT CHG.
TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION
2003
2004
2005
03-04 04-05
TOTAL CONSTRUCTION
898,295
974,811
1,028,603
+8.5
+5.5
Residential
482,902
534,941
566,699
+10.8
+5.9
Single-Family
298,258
335,452
354,412
+12.5
+5.7
Multifamily
50,667
52,304
54,842
+3.2
+4.9
Home Improvement
133,977
147,185
157,445
+9.9
+7.0
TOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL
291,363
312,485
330,542
+7.3
+5.8
Lodging
10,715
11,051
11,702
+3.1
+5.9
Office
40,349
43,218
47,332
+7.1
+9.5
Amusements and Recreation
19,030
20,140
21,356
+5.8
+6.0
Religious
8,363
8,595
8,930
+2.8
+3.9
Education
71,117
71,999
73,473
+1.2
+2.1
Health care
29,581
30,589
31,815
+3.4
+4.0
Commercial
61,034
62,778
67,305
+2.9
+7.2
Manufacturing
14,076
14,598
16,433
+3.7
+12.6
Public Safety, Administrative
8,495
8,485
8,799
-0.1
+3.7
Transportation
24,227
25,150
26,800
+3.8
+6.6
NONBUILDING STRUCTURES
124,030
127,385
131,362
+2.7
+3.1
Conservation & Development
3,734
3,875
4,069
+3.8
+5.0
Highways & Streets
61,877
63,795
65,697
+3.1
+3.0
Sewers Systems
12,66
13,216
14,128
+4.4
+6.9
Power
36,230
36,592
36,958
+1.0
+1.0
Water Supply
9,526
9,907
10,510
+4.0
+6.1
Source: FMI Corp., Raleigh, N.C.
Historical data is compiled from building permits, construction-put-in-place, Clark Reports and trade sources. Estimate for 2004 and forecast for 2005 by FMI.

(Photo top by Monica N. Macezinskas, photo manipulation by Nancy Soulliard for ENR)

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